Urban Meyer’s 10-2 Prediction: Matt Patricia’s Defensive Impact on Ohio State’s 2025 Championship Hopes
Coming off a national championship, expectations are sky-high for the Ohio State Buckeyes heading into the 2025 season. But with massive personnel changes—including eight defensive starters now preparing for NFL careers and two new coordinators—questions remain about whether the Buckeyes can maintain their championship standard.
The program’s defensive future now rests in the hands of Matt Patricia, the three-time Super Bowl champion defensive coordinator who joined Ryan Day’s staff in February. While Patricia’s NFL credentials are undeniable, even former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer recognizes the challenges that lie ahead.
Speaking on his podcast “The Triple Option,” Meyer offered a pragmatic outlook for the Buckeyes in 2025, predicting a 10-2 record for his former program. While some fans might view this as a step backward, Meyer framed it differently.
“That’s actually a hell of a season with a new team,” Meyer noted. “You know what a new team is by the end of the year? It’s not a new team anymore. It’s an old team. They’ll be a veteran team by the time they get to Ann Arbor.”
Meyer’s assessment acknowledges the significant turnover on defense while also recognizing Ohio State’s tremendous recruiting success. “They recruited at a whole different level than anyone else in college football in the last 15 or 20 years,” Meyer observed. “I thought we always recruited well. Man, I see these rosters, my gosh, what they’ve done.”
The defensive coordinator transition is particularly significant, as Meyer noted: “Matt Patricia, that’s going to be the biggest change because I think Brian Hartline’s just going to keep going along with the Chip Kelly, Ohio State and Ryan Day offense.”
The Buckeyes open against Texas on August 30, providing an immediate measuring stick for Patricia’s defensive reconstruction project.
Patricia’s Defensive Building Blocks
Despite the personnel turnover, Patricia inherits several elite defensive pieces around which to build. Safety Caleb Downs, widely considered college football’s premier defensive back, returns after a stellar sophomore campaign. Cornerback Davison Igbinosun and linebacker Sonny Styles also bring significant starting experience.
“It’s hard not to walk into the building and try to find Caleb as fast as possible,” Patricia said of Downs during spring practice. “He’s an unbelievable, amazing player, very versatile. You look at a guy like that and think, ‘We’re going to be able to do some really fun things with him.'”
Patricia has begun implementing a defensive system characterized by positional flexibility and multiple fronts. Rather than adhering to a single defensive identity, he’s creating packages that maximize the specific talents of his personnel. This approach is evident in the move of C.J. Hicks from linebacker to defensive end, potentially unlocking the former five-star recruit’s pass-rushing abilities.
“My goal is to figure out what you do well,” Patricia explained. “How do I put you in the best position to get on the field and do that job well? Because if you can play fast and aggressive because you’re in your proper skill set, then you’re going to be disruptive as a defensive player.”
The Balancing Act: Complexity vs. Simplicity
While Patricia’s NFL defenses were known for their complexity and weekly adaptability, he’s been careful to strike a balance at Ohio State, where practice time is more limited and players less experienced than in the professional ranks.
“The beauty of football, and something I learned at New England, was taking the extremely complex and boiling it down to maybe three to five simple things so we can detail that out as much as possible,” Patricia said. “Going into a game, my goal was always to make sure they could play fast and aggressive, so I don’t want to have too much where they can’t do that.”
This philosophy has resonated with Day, who praised Patricia’s teaching ability. “He’s very, very intelligent, really knows defensive football, and the guys who played for him really felt they were getting better because of the way he taught football, fundamentally,” Day said.
The Road Ahead
As the summer approaches, Patricia continues developing a defensive identity that balances innovation with execution. The spring game offered glimpses of his multiple-front approach, with players lining up in various positions and alignments.
Meyer’s 10-2 prediction might seem conservative to some Ohio State fans accustomed to championship expectations, but it acknowledges the reality of such significant transitions. With new starters at eight defensive positions and a coordinator implementing fresh schemes, growing pains are inevitable.
Nevertheless, the combination of Patricia’s extensive NFL experience and Ohio State’s elite recruiting positions allowed the Buckeyes to remain among college football’s elite defenses even during this transitional season. Whether they can maintain the championship standard set in 2024 will depend on how quickly Patricia’s system takes root and how effectively the new defensive starters adapt to expanded roles.
If Meyer’s assessment proves correct, that “new team” will indeed become a veteran one by season’s end—potentially positioning the Buckeyes for another playoff run despite the challenges of defensive reconstruction.
